8.5.05

 

Fraga está al borde de la mayoría absoluta y lograría 39 escaños si la votación es masiva

[08/05/05 - El Correo Gallego]

El PPdeG revalidará la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones autonómicas del 19 de junio si los gallegos acuden a las urnas de forma elevada. Así se desprende del sondeo realizado a 2.000 personas por Anova Multiconsulting para EL CORREO GALLEGO entre los pasados 28 de abril y dos de mayo, tras el anuncio del decreto de disolución del Parlamento de Galicia.La encuesta estima una abstención sobre el total del censo electoral del 25,15 por ciento para el 19-J. El dato en los comicios autonómicos de 2001 alcanzó la cifra del 39,84 por ciento.Según el estudio, el PPdeG obtendrá un apoyo estimado del 47,36 por ciento sobre el total de votantes, frente al 51,26 por ciento alcanzado hace cuatro años. El PSdeG pasará del 21,67 por ciento de respaldo en las últimas autonómicas al 32,13 por ciento el 19-J y el BNG descenderá del 22,43 por ciento en 2001 al 17,63 por ciento dentro de mes y medio. Es decir, el PPdeG perderá el 3,9 por ciento del electorado; el PSdeG ganará el 10,46 por ciento y el Bloque perderá un 4,8 por ciento.Reparto de escañosEl trabajo demoscópico tras aplicar la Ley D´Ont para el cálculo del reparto de escaños para cada formación según la estimación refleja que el PPdeG obtendrá el 19-J entre 36 y 39 diputados (la mayoría absoluta está en 38), el PSdeG entre 22 y 25 y el BNG 14. Es decir, los populares perderán entre dos y cinco parlamentarios, los socialistas ganarán entre cinco y ocho y los nacionalistas perderán tres.La horquilla de parlamentarios que bailan se debe a que en algunas provincias la asignación de las últimas actas está muy ajustada entre dos candidaturas, la del PPdeG y la del PSdeG.El método del muestreo fue a través de encuestas telefónicas asistidas por ordenador y el error muestral para un nivel de confianza del 95,5 por ciento (dos sigmas) es de más-menos 2,2 por ciento para el conjunto de Galicia."

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